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This study is based on a
comparison of how 16 colleges attempt to estimate the number
of applications that the college will receive, how many offers
will be accepted by students, as well as how many transfers in
and out of the college will occur. The study helps its
readers to answer questions such as: How do colleges
predict the number of applications that they will receive? How
do they estimate the impact on applications and acceptances of
demographic trends, the state of the economy, level of
financial aid offered, and the characteristics of colleges
that are viewed as alternatives. How many colleges hire
consultants to help predict these numbers? Which
consultants do they hire and how much do they pay them?
How close are their predictions? Have they gotten
better or worse at such forecasts in recent years? How
do they predict the likely majors that their incoming students
will choose? Are they able to accurately predict dropout
rates? How close do they come each year in forecasting
the number of foreign student applications?
Just a few of the
report’s many findings are that:
• Close
to a third of survey participants could predict the number of
accepted offers of those extended within 3% of the actual
acceptance rate.
• All
the colleges charging more than $30,000 per year in annual
tuition believe they had made either a great or significant
effort to predict the number of incoming undergraduate
applications to the college. All the colleges that
believe that they had not done enough charge less than $10,000
per year in annual tuition.
• Less
than half of survey participants were satisfied with their
capabilities in predicting the flow of transfers into the
college.
